Ellie Henderson
The 2022 US midterm elections on 8 November saw all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats contested. As votes continued to be counted over a week later, the political battle came down to the wire.
Ultimately, the fight for control of the Senate was very narrowly won by the Democrats. The Republicans secured control of the House of Representatives – but not by the margin they anticipated.
The Wins and Losses
Prior to the elections, the Republicans had held control of the Senate since 2014. The Democrats had controlled the House of Representatives since 2018. During the 2022 midterms, the two exchanged places: Democrats gained the Senate but lost the House to the Republicans.
Although a handful of races remain to be called, the results are now clear. Democrats narrowly control the Senate with 50 seats as opposed to the Republicans’ 49. They reached the required majority of 218 seats in the House of Representatives. It is the Democrats who stand at a disadvantage with 210 seats.
“Democratic strategists had stated that it would take a “miracle” for the democrats to obtain a majority in the House.”
The Republicans’ win came with no surprise. Last week, Democratic strategists had stated that it would take a “miracle” for the Democrats to obtain the required majority in the House. On Monday, President Joe Biden even stated that “I think we’re going to get very close in the House, but I don’t think we’re going to make it”.
The race for the Senate had been neck-and-neck for days. The Democrats only secured their win on Sunday, following a narrow, crucial win in the state of Nevada. Meanwhile, the Republicans slowly but confidently made gains in the House. Although their win will have a significant impact on the Biden administration’s political leverage, the Republican majority is significantly smaller.
Historically, there is a general trend. The party in control of the White House – currently the Democrats – usually loses seats at a larger scale during midterm elections. So, the Democratic Party performed exceptionally well. They won the Senate and prevented a major ‘red wave’ in the House.
Notable Moments
Since voting began last Tuesday, there have been a number of notable moments. Biden made an important address the following day, Tweeting that: “Democracy doesn’t happen by accident. We have to defend, strengthen, and renew it”. The president centred his speech around democracy’s importance. He believes that “democracy has been tested in recent years” but that “the American people have spoken” – here, a reference to the 6 January Capitol Riots. This outburst signalled an incredibly unstable period for America’s democracy and political landscape.
“There is now extensive speculation that [Ron DeSantis] may put himself forward in the 2024 presidential race.”
The elections also saw some hugely significant individual wins. For instance, Florida welcomed the re-election of Ron DeSantis as Governor of the state. There is now extensive speculation that he will put himself forward in the 2024 presidential race, as rival to Donald Trump. This follows his previous four years of leadership. He promoted conservative ideologies around the likes of transgender rights and ‘Critical Race Theory’, speaking out against pandemic restrictions.
Another notable moment was the release of reports that Georgia state is set to hold a run-off election early next month. As neither Republican Herschel Walker nor Democrat Raphael Warnock secured more than 50% of state votes – with 48% and 49% respectively – another vote must be held as per Georgia’s laws. Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Ratffensperger confirmed this on Wednesday, 9 November.
Alongside the race in Georgia, there are many other cliffhanger races. But the majority may not be clear for days, weeks even, as votes continue to be counted.
Changes in Congress
Indeed, the most significant implications of the midterm results are on the dynamic within Congress. The Democrats need to push their legislative agenda forward. Their loss of the House means that the Republicans are set to make things far more difficult for them. The right-wing party will create many stand-backs in passing policy and extensive investigations into the Biden administration.
“Biden believes he is ‘the best person to continue the progress that we have made.'”
These investigations are set to be all the more intense, as Biden is likely to run for a second presidential term. The Democrats’ positive performance is clear. But, Biden is yet to confirm his participation in the Presidential race. Indeed, Senior White House adviser Anita Dunn stated that Biden believes he is “the best person to continue the progress that we have made”.
With Republicans set to take hold of the House, Congressman Kevin McCarthy is more likely to take the role of Speaker. He has been a Republican House member since 2007 and House majority leader between 2014-2017. Biden stated in his initial address that he was “ready to work with Republicans” and would contact McCarthy that same night.
Abortion Rights
Notably, this year’s midterms were fought against a backdrop of fierce debate over abortion rights in the US. The overturning of Roe vs Wade in June reversed the constitutional right to abortion in all American states. Abortion rights became dependent on each state’s own laws. In 30 states – including Alabama, Texas, and Kentucky – abortion became illegal. The procedure is only legal where birth poses a danger to a woman’s life. It remains protected in other states, such as California, New York, and Washington.
Ahead of this year’s midterms, many prominent Republicans, including Sarah Palin, took a stance. They believe abortion rights should remain a State Government decision, not universally protected. In contrast, Democratic candidates generally favoured the protection of abortion rights under Federal law.
“Voters had prioritised the issue of abortion more than generally anticipated, with it being the second most important issue being contested in the elections.”
Ultimately, voters in states where abortion rights were at stake voted overwhelmingly to protect them. People in California, Vermont, and Michigan voted in favour of updating their state constitutions to include the right to abortion. Yet, in Kentucky, an amendment that would have removed abortion rights from their constitution was rejected. Exit polls indeed showed that voters had prioritised the issue of abortion more than anticipated. This was the second most important issue being contested in the elections.
The Return of Donald Trump
On 4 November, days before the elections, former Republican President Donald Trump announced that he “will very, very, very probably” run for President again in 2024. Whilst at the Republican Rally in Iowa, he stated: “In order to make our country successful and safe and glorious, I will very, very, very probably do it again … Get ready, that’s all I’m telling you – very soon. Get ready.”
After extensive speculation, it was confirmed. Trump officially signalled his intentions to re-enter the political mainstream and run in the 2024 Presidential Elections. With Trump as undeniably, one of the most controversial presidents in American history, this announcement prompted concern for many.
Trump’s track record undeniably stained American democracy. During his term, he: enforced travel bans on Muslim citizens, passed policy separating migrant families, promoted misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic, was impeached following incitement of the January 6 Capitol attack, and much more.
Indeed, Trump had sponsored 174 Republican candidates for the midterms. Speculations also suggested that he would seek to capitalise upon the potential wins of any of these candidates, respectively upon Republican gains as a whole. This would build momentum for launching his campaign.
“Despite these losses, he indeed formally announced his 2024 run”
However, he faced many high-profile losses from his sponsored candidates, including in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio. Trump’s credibility is once again on the rocks amongst his fellow Republicans. Despite these losses, he indeed formally announced his 2024 run on Tuesday, 15 November. The statement reads: “In order to make America great and glorious again, I am tonight announcing my candidacy for president of the United States.”
But with criticism of him mounting, and the threat of the popular Ron DeSantis as a likely rival now looming over him, Trump’s successful return remains very uncertain. At least for now.
Featured image courtesy of Tabrez Syed on Unsplash. No changes were made to this image. Image license found here.
Ellie Henderson
Glasgow-based freelance journalist and editorial intern, specialising in news, politics, and music journalism.