Yasmin Walker
On the 6th of June, Boris Johnson faced a vote of no-confidence, placing his leadership at risk. The result of the vote saw a numerical ‘win’ for Downing Street. Yet, in reality, the vote was far from a success.
To win the vote, Johnson needed 50% plus one of his MPs to side with him. Johnson won by 59% to 41% (211 to 148 MPs). The Prime Minister’s initial reaction was positive, stating that the result clears up any dividing lines within the party and will allow him to ‘get on with the job’. Only time will tell how easy it will be for Boris Johnson to continue as PM, given the ongoing pressure from his backbenchers.
What is the no-confidence vote?
No-confidence votes are used as a tool to draw a line under conflicts within a party. Despite this, the outcome of the 1922 Committee—the parliamentary group of backbench Conservative MPs—has instead shone a light on the divisions within both the Conservative backbenches and Johnson’s own cabinet.
Monday’s no-confidence comes just two and a half years after the 2019 election victory that saw the Conservatives win the largest majority since Thatcher’s victory in 1987.
Who is in favour of Johnson’s leadership?
As it became clear that a no-confidence vote was imminent, dozens of MPs took to social media to announce their support or opposition towards the Prime Minister. Cabinet ministers including Rishi Sunak and Nadine Dorries spoke out in favour of Johnson. Whilst ex-cabinet minister Jeremy Hunt effectively launched his leadership campaign, claiming he would be “voting for change”.
Conservative MPs voted in a secret ballot, meaning they do not need to disclose which way they voted. Despite this, some ministers’ actions seemed to be indicative of their position on Johnson’s leadership.
“[Johnson] breached a fundamental principle of the ministerial code.” – John Penrose
One key figure is John Penrose, who was Johnson’s anti-corruption tsar and was responsible for coordinating and implementing a UK anti-corruption strategy and engaging with external businesses and parliamentarians to develop the government’s anti-corruption policy. Penrose resigned hours before the no-confidence vote over Johnson’s response to the Sue Gray report and the Partygate scandal, claiming it is now clear the Prime Minister “breached a fundamental principle of the ministerial code.”
Both Penrose’s resignation and Hunt’s vote for change are representative of the emotions running through the Conservative backbenches that ultimately resulted in 41% of MPs voting against the Prime Minister. Regardless of Johnson claiming the result was a success, it is expected that the number of MPs against Johnson’s leadership will climb, and a second no-confidence vote could occur.
The rules of the Conservative 1922 Committee, which consists of all Conservative backbench MPs, state that another confidence vote cannot be held for 12 months. Nevertheless, upcoming by-election results along with MPs pushing for a change of the rules could result in another confidence vote being held sooner than expected, which may not be in Johnson’s favour.
History of no-confidence votes in the Conservative Party
The history of British politics indicates that a no-confidence vote often triggers the beginning of the end for the leader at the time.
Margaret Thatcher’s leadership was challenged in 1990. Despite winning a slim majority—as Johnson has—Thatcher resigned days later.
In 2018, Theresa May faced a no-confidence vote that resulted in 63% of MPs voting for confidence in her leadership. May had a majority of 83 MPs compared to Johnson’s majority of 63 MPs. Despite this win in favour of Theresa May, she resigned within six months.
“a leadership contest in the UK right now could be seen as extremely bad timing.”
However, the situation in the UK today is very different. The urge by backbenchers to push another no-confidence vote is complicated. Even those most critical of the Prime Minister can understand the country’s focus should be on issues such as helping those struggling with the cost-of-living crisis and providing assistance in the Ukraine war. Consequently, a leadership contest in the UK right now could be seen as extremely bad timing.
According to YouGov’s recent opinion poll, 59% of adults believe Boris Johnson should resign as Prime Minister. In spite of this and the no-confidence vote result, Johnson sees the result of Monday as a success and plans to carry on with his job of leading the country through challenging times, with an offer of his resignation nowhere in sight.
Featured image courtesy of Number 10 via Flickr. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.
Yasmin Walker
Hi, I'm Yasmin! I'm 20 and study politics at the University of Leeds. I'm very interested in current affairs and hope to one day be a political journalist.