What you need to know ahead of COP26

Flavia Gouveia

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Reports by the IPCC have left no room for debate, confirming that human activity has resulted in global warming. Coordinated global action is fundamental for preventing further damaging emissions and increases in the global temperature.

An international event like COP26 presents a significant opportunity to achieve global collective action. The two-week summit will see over 30,000 attendees and is set to include many world leaders, international negotiations and panel discussions held by NGOs.  

What is COP26? 

The COP26 UN Climate Change Conference will be taking place in Glasgow from 31 October to 12 November 2021. The UK is hosting this year in partnership with Italy. COVID-19 disrupted original plans for the conference in 2020.

COP is an acronym for Conference of Parties. The Parties are countries that have signed up to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), which came into force in March 1994. 

The upcoming conference will be the 26^th meeting, hence COP26. Parties of the UNFCC meet annually to discuss and review the international handling of climate change.

It is hoped that meetings will result in agreements between world leaders to take action against climate change. Two of the key agenda items this year are revised emissions targets and funding. 

The COP26 Agenda 

“securing a brighter future for our children and future generations requires countries to take urgent action”

Prime Minister Boris Johnson, opened the UK’s explainer document saying, “securing a brighter future for our children and future generations requires countries to take urgent action at home and abroad to turn the tide on climate change.” But what does this mean? 

Specifically, the aim of this conference is to agree on ways to curb global emissions; to meet the goals of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius; reaching net zero by 2050; and agree on stronger targets for 2030 to enable the success of net-zero by 2050. 

This will be achieved, in part, by agreeing to updated national commitments and funding arrangements.  

National Commitments 

At COP21, in Paris, the parties of the UNFCC reached the Paris Agreement. The agreement centred on keeping the global temperature rise “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.”

Further, they agreed to “pursue efforts to limit temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius”.

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), were self-imposed emissions reduction targets submitted by countries in 2016. However, according to the Climate Action Tracker, they have been short of what the science has said is necessary. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on current emissions the world is on track to get 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter by 2030. 

“A key focus of this conference is agreeing to revised NDCs.”

Despite calls for radical commitments by the parties of COP26, a recent Emissions Gap Report has highlighted that current country pledges, submitted in advance of COP26, will fail to keep the global temperature under 1.5 degrees Celsius this century. 

Therefore, a key focus of this conference is agreeing to revised NDCs. Discussions are likely to start at the G20 summit which precedes COP26, happening in Rome on October 30th and 31st. The countries making up the G20 currently account for around 80% of global emissions. 

COP26 President, Alok Sharma, said in a speech to the G20, that “the response of the G20 will quite simply be make, or break” for our ability to curb an increase over 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

Two of the largest emitting countries are set to snub the conference. Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have confirmed they will not attend. China and Russia emit approximately 32% of global emissions and their absence is likely to hinder negotiations. 

With the absence of Russia and China, and the underwhelming NDC goals, the ability of COP26 to deliver the necessary global commitments is uncertain. 

Funding 

One of the key commitments made in 2015 was a pledge by developed countries to raise $100 billion per year to support developing countries. The parties did not meet this goal by its 2020 deadline, which has negatively affected developing countries’ trust in developed countries. 

“Developing nations tend to pollute less per head of population”

Funding is crucial for ensuring a just global transition, supporting developing nations to make the costly changes necessary to jump ahead of fossil fuels. Sir David Attenborough, who in May 2021 was named COP26 People’s Advocate, has warned in an interview with the BBC that developed nations “have a moral responsibility”. 

Developing nations tend to pollute less per head of population and are not responsible for past emissions. They are, however, more likely to feel the effects of the climate crisis and urgently need to begin climate adaptation.

COP26 parties source climate finance from public and private sources, and Finance Day will take place on 3 November. Alok Sharma has said that although $100bn is just a fraction of the investment needed to tackle the climate crisis, delivering it is crucial for maintaining trust.

While the US, Germany, Canada and the UK pledged an increased commitment of £11.6bn in the next four years, recent reports suggest that total pledges are currently $10bn short of the target. 

Countries like Sweden, Norway and Spain are also expected to increase their contributions; however, whether this facilitates achieving the $100bn a year until 2025 commitment remains to be seen. 

The type of funding will also be up for negotiation with more calls for grants for developing nations. This follows a declaration by the V20 Group (Climate Vulnerable Group) in July 2021 that loans, which currently make up approximately 79% of the funding, are increasing their financial burden. 

Funding that will enable developing nations to adapt and green their economies while not increasing their financial burden will be crucial for coordinating credible negotiations and agreeable targets.

What will happen at the end?

Whilst we can expect various announcements throughout, leaders will make a closing declaration will be made at the end of the two weeks, setting out what they have agreed during the summit.

You can find a detailed plan of the events of COP26 here.

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Featured image courtesy of Markus Spiske on Unsplash. No changes or alterations were made to this image. Image license can be found here.