Research shows that London’s population is gradually falling because of the Coronavirus pandemic. The job losses, wage cuts, remote working and lockdowns has created reasons for people to want to escape the urban jungle in pursuit of serenity.
Before the pandemic hit last year, the Office for National Statistics predicted that the London population would increase by around 56,000 people between 2020 and 2021.
However, a survey of 450 people conducted by the London Assembly found that 4.5% of people who took part said they would ‘definitely’ move out of the city within 12 months to other areas of the UK. They suggest that if only 14% of this prediction were to happen, then it would not only erase this population increase number, but London’s population would decline for the first time in the 21st Century.
London has always had a steady stream of young people moving there every year, with 77% of young graduates under the impression that there are more job opportunities in big cities. However, as working from home became the norm, employees had the chance to work without having to be located near city offices.
Young people are the most attributed for these outmigration figures. Research by the Hamptons estate agents show that first-time buyers are accounting for over a third of households buying outside of London.
Aneisha Beveridge, head of research at Hamptons, believes that the consequences the pandemic has had on our daily lives has brought a desire for space and natural surroundings as more and more people began working from home and found that the capital was not where they wanted to be.
‘Despite Covid-19 closing the housing market for seven weeks, the number of homes bought by Londoners outside the capital has risen to the highest level in four years.’ Beveridge said.
Data: Hamptons
For some, the decision to be one of these people who were buying outside the capital was triggered by the lack of natural outdoor space to enjoy time outside in, especially when daily walks are the only chance a lot of people get to be outside the house.
‘What matters is being able to open our front door and be on an empty clifftop or beach within minutes.’ Gaby Morse told The Guardian.
For others, the financial strain that the pandemic has had on so many people provoked the move out of one of the most expensive cities to live in. Natalie Scott moved from south London to Headingley, Leeds last year and has experienced the benefits of it.
‘During lockdown, we were paying £1,700 rent for a tiny flat that we would never be able to afford to buy…we’ve bought a small cottage and love our life here (Leeds).’
Since the onset of Covid-19, London outmigration soared with London leavers buying 73,950 homes outside the capital in 2020, a figure that was the highest in four years.
The following graph pictures the average miles moved by Londoners who have left the city to live elsewhere in the last decade. Between 2010 and 2019 the levels remain relatively consistent with people moving only around 25 miles out of the capital. By the months of May to December 2020, however, the number of miles moved soared to over 40, almost double what they have been over the last nine years.
Data: Hamptons
This means that the average person leaving London from May onwards were travelling as far as Cambridge to the north, Brighton to the south, Colchester to the east or Didcot to the west.
Rental prices in inner London have fallen since the start of the pandemic, and the number of sales in the central areas has dropped as international buyers have been kept away. A blog published by the government-funded Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence estimated that around 1.3 million people who were born abroad but living in the UK had left between the last few months of 2019 and 2020.
The study found a link between the departure of these foreign nationals and the number of job losses in sectors such as hospitality, a sector that has been hard hit but also relied on oversee workers, especially young ones.
The authors of the study stated that ‘it seems that much of the burden of job losses during the pandemic has fallen on non-UK workers and that has manifested itself in return migration, rather than unemployment.
In London, this number totaled 700,000 foreign-born residents who had moved out of the capital, leading to a nearly 8% drop in the capital’s population in 2020.
Across central London, reductions of more than 25 percent have become common, with tremors in the rental market likely to be felt in the sales market too, says Neal Hudson– a UK housing market analyst.
‘if rents are falling that will put pressure on landlords: gross yields were already quite low in parts of London and if (landlords) have got any sort of debt they are unlikely to be covering costs.’
Meanwhile, the loss of thousands of tenants will affect future sales too, says Donnell.
‘The rental market is the top of the funnel: the number of first-time buyers in London tomorrow could be hit by a lack of activity in the lettings market today,’ he says.
While Office of National Statistics figures show London prices zooming ahead, according to Zoopla, house price growth in London last year was slower than nearly every other UK region. Spurred on by the stamp duty cut, prices in the North West grew 5 per cent; in the South West, they rose 3.6 per cent, but after the stamp duty holiday ends on the last day of March, estate agents predict a drop in activity once more, especially in London if the city’s population continues to decline.
Some do believe that this could be a good thing for London: ‘it could actually be what London needs over a longer-term perspective, if it leads to London becoming more affordable and attractive to young people again’, says Neal Hudson.
Only time will tell if London’s property market and population levels will improve or not over the coming years, but one thing that can be said for definite is that the capital is experiencing a big shift at the hands of the pandemic.