People climb a monument in France and fly a French flag from the top. France's recent election results showed a surprise victory for its left-wing coalition - but have we seen the last of their right-wing National Rally?

Anna Boyne 

The final round of France’s legislative elections took place on 7th July, just days after the UK’s general election.

While Labour’s landslide victory had been predicted months in advance, victory for the French left-wing coalition was anything but expected.

France’s election result reactions have been doing the rounds on social media. Hopeful faces of the far-right National Rally (RN) members anticipating a historic victory turn into disappointment and sombre silence. Having led in the first round with 33.3 per cent of the vote, many expected to secure a majority. Yet the RN were knocked from top spot into third place behind the New Popular Front (NPF) and Macron’s Together coalition.

Jordan Bardella – the 28 year old set to become Prime Minister if the RN had won – later described the victory as “a dishonest alliance”. Others might call it democracy in action.

The legislative electoral system facilitates a more tactical approach by the second round of voting. Taking into account the results of the first round, many candidates voluntarily take themselves out of the running to ensure there is one clear candidate representing a broader political group. This effectively creates a block against extremist parties like the RN.

This is what we just saw happen. More than 200 centre and left candidates dropped out to avoid splitting the anti-RN vote.

But does this mean we’ve seen the last of National Rally? Is this the final blow to their coalition, or just a temporary setback?

THE RISE OF THE FAR-RIGHT

In July this year, the French narrowly voted against the far-right. But the RN’s rising popularity is not slowing down. Even with their surprise loss this year, they’ve still nearly doubled their seats in the National Assembly. Up from 89 seats out of 577 in 2022, they now sit at 142 seats. This is in large part thanks to Marine Le Pen’s strategy of “dédiabolisation“. This is a policy in which the party has sought to eradicate its most extreme elements, such as widespread antisemitism, and prior glorification of the Vichy Nazi collaboration during WWII.

“Voting for the RN simply no longer carries the same taboo.”

As a result, voting for the RN simply no longer carries the same taboo. This is helped by the fact that, as more and more right-wing parties gain prominence throughout Europe and beyond, it’s becoming less unfashionable to advocate for far-right nationalism. As such, more French people are happy to declare where their political allegiances lie.

Additionally, as le Pen herself pointed out, RN are the biggest party in terms of National Assembly numbers – crucially, both Macron’s alliance and the NPF were coalitions. This indicates that not only are RN adapting to the scandals that put off potential voters, but they’re also benefitting from a wave of right-wing sentiment in both the electorate and their representatives.

WHAT ARE RN’S POLICIES?

A nationalist prioritisation of French citizens underpin most of RN’s politics. On immigration, the RN promised to end birthright citizenship, under which children born to two foreign parents in France automatically obtain French citizenship at the age of 18. Justifying their proposed policy, Bardella, whose mother was an immigrant from Italy, cited the country’s inability to integrate and assimilate immigrants.

French secularism continues to be a polemical issue, which disproportionately affects those with immigrant heritage. Bans on wearing religious symbolism in public institutions, for example, have a greater impact on Muslims than Catholics, whose religion does not require a strict dress code. This can lead to greater exclusion, as many are forced to choose between conforming to their religion or to the French state.

“Muslims have increasingly been scapegoated by the RN”

Muslims have increasingly been scapegoated by the RN in recent years, and many feared greater crackdowns under Bardella and le Pen; the latter had made clear her intentions to ban the hijab from public spaces, and prohibit the distribution of halal goods.

The RN also planned to bar dual-nationals from holding jobs in “sensitive strategic posts” like defence, and to reserve social benefits solely for French nationals, or those who have worked in France for at least five years. Yet, the RN’s policies are clearly striking a chord among a vast number of the electorate. This reflects a huge dissatisfaction with Macron’s unfulfilled promises and the current state of the nation.

Capitalising On Instability

Macron called the legislative elections in order to regain control of government. And yet, he’s only made it more unmanageable. This is juicy political capital for the RN.

“They’re now faced with the challenge of leading a divided country”

Having hurriedly banded together to oppose the rise of the RN, the NPF perhaps never really expected to win. The coalition is a mishmash of France Unbowed, Greens, Socialists and Communists. They’re now faced with the challenge of leading a divided country, while being similarly divided themselves.

The NPF may have won the most votes, but their 182 seats in the National Assembly is not enough to secure a governmental majority. The two other political powers hold an almost equal share of the votes. With Macron’s 168, and the RN’s 143, this leaves a hung Parliament.

Macron is still President and will remain in his position until the Presidential elections in 2027 when his term expires. The country is entering a period of cohabitation, as the Prime Minister will be a member of the NPF. This power-sharing between a divided left and Macron’s centrism can only inhibit productivity. This leaves an open goal for the RN, practically writing their campaign slogans for them.

If this power-sharing coalition can’t make strides over the next three years, the RN will have another chance to sway the French electorate. By capitalising on what’s likely to be a period of instability, the RN may be able to convince the France that their plans are viable solutions to the country’s problems.

To put it simply: this isn’t the last we’ve heard of Le Pen and Bardella’s National Rally.

READ NEXT:

Featured image courtesy of Pierre Herman on Unsplash. No changes made to this image. License can be found here.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *