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Does The 20-Year Rule Still Apply In 2024?

Teguan Harris
A woman with Y2K style waved hair, brown lipstick and brightly coloured eye makeup licks a lollypop.

Teguan Harris

Throughout 2023, a handful of fashion trends resurfaced 20 years after they were initially popular. Y2K trends, including cargos, bootleg jeans and bucket hats, returned from the dead. Experts believe this is how the cycle of fashion always works. But will 2024 follow this 20-year rule?

Today, with the flux of social media and the speed of fast fashion, trends come and go faster than ever before. Often, by the time our TikTok algorithms pick up on a new aesthetic emerging, it’s already dead.

However, the longstanding rules of fashion may be more resilient than any viral trend: black goes with everything, dress for your body shape, follow the golden ratio, etc. No matter how influential TikTok is, there are some staples of fashion we refuse to give up. And the 20-year rule could be one of them.

Will we see another year of renewed fashion trends? If so, which ones?

What Is The 20-year Rule?

As any stylist or blogger knows, fashion trends cycle every 20 years. This is the time it takes for a trend to die and become fashionable again.

The 20-year rule explains why Y2K trends have recently reemerged, with shows like Euphoria reviving the popular tracksuit from the Noughties. Other examples include 20th-century punk, glam rock and goth inspiring people’s lockdown looks.

The fashion cycle has five stages:

  1. Introduction
  2. Increase
  3. Peak
  4. Decline
  5. Obsolescence.

Trends are usually introduced on catwalks, red carpets or television shows. These trickle down to become popular mainstream clothing that can be bought in high street shops. After a while, we grow bored of wearing the same thing and move onto the next big trend. Eventually, the original trend is reintroduced, reminding everyone why they loved it in the first place.

Even the 20-year rule is a reimagination of an early idea! It’s inspired by Laver’s Law.

@salutetothemoon

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What Is Laver’s Law?

In 1927, fashion historian James Laver conceived a timeline of how we view fashion trends over the years.

Lavers Law states that if you wear a style one year after it’s popularity, people will see you as ‘dowdy’. If you wear a style ten years after it’s time, you are ‘hideous’. You’d have to wait 150 years until the trend came back around to be considered ‘beautiful’.

The 20-year rule highlights that fashion moves in faster cycles than it used to. This is likely due to our increased connections, as we’re now able to see what people are wearing in real time. While trends used to travel slowly across nations, they can now be seen around the world instantly. The globalisation of media means fashion moves faster than ever before.

What Fashion Trends Will Re-emerge In 2024?

At the end of 2023, we saw aesthetics and accessories paying tribute to early 2000s fashion. With that in mind, these are the fashion trends we’re predicting will dominate in 2024.

Kitten Heels

Kitten heels became popular at the end of 2023, with influencers purchasing designer kitten heels.

They first gained mainstream cultural significance in the 1950s. By the 1960s, women of all ages had started wearing kitten heels. There was another spike in popularity in the late 90s and early 2000s, especially among young women. In 2024, fashionistas will crave a pair.

Kitten heels can be paired with both casual and elegant wear, from nightclubs to tea parties and dinners.

Gorpcore

Gorpcore is becoming a prominent trend in 2024. The Cut coined the term in 2017, yet the fashion trend can be traced back to the nineties and noughties. You might remember the look being sported by britpop groups like Blur and Pulp, but people also donned North Face Nuptse and Mountain Parkas on the streets.

The gorpcore fashion trend is also known as ‘quiet indoors athleisure’, a fashion movement that combines outdoor wear with urban street style. Gorpcore is popular among fashion enthusiasts who value the blend of style and functionality in the current market and industry.

Athleisure and Activewear

Athleisure wear, or comfort dressing, is another instance of the ongoing wellness trend popular amongst influencers.

Farron Davis, Brand and Design Manager at Blakely, said athleisure is a continued trend from the pandemic. Soft fabrics, elasticated ease and oversized fits are still a firm staple. Wearable tech-elevated garments and looks inspired by athletes are an elevated variation on the look for 2024. Casual sweat sets, hoodies or a polo shirt — paired with a statement accessory, cap, or trainers — are now for everyday wear, not just the gym.

Fitness fashion was also worn by everyone, from Princess Diana to Great Shape Barbie, back in the 1980s.

Sustainable Fashion

Fashion enthusiasts are still thrifting and restyling old clothes in mainstream culture. People love to thrift ‘retro’ or ‘vintage’ clothes from older generations and revamp them into something new.

“Consumers increasingly seek brands that align with their values,” explained fashion journalist Helen Davies. “There has been a rise in demand for discounts on ethically produced clothing.”

Profits have slumped for major retail businesses such as PrettyLittleThing and Boohoo in the name of sustainability. However, online fast fashion stores like SHEIN are only becoming more successful.

The Year Of Aesthetics?

TikTok has popularised the use of aesthetics in fashion trends.

Bows, lace and the colour pink are some of the newest aesthetics to hit social media. Known as “coquette,” this hyper-feminine aesthetic stemmed from the Japanese Lolita subculture, which embraces Victorian and Rococo-era fashion.

TikTok user Kayla Trivieri started the “mob wife aesthetic” fashion trend in late 2023. Long trench coats, sunglasses, and boots were the staples of the trend. She described the aesthetic as “standing on business.” It’s all about appearing forward and bold.

https://www.tiktok.com/@mirajoysie/video/7318590755897904405?is_from_webapp=1&sender_device=pc&web_id=7328768465651992097

Social Media: The Two-Minute Rule?

Thanks to the speed and volume of social media content, trends do not stay trendy for long. In fact, the rapid rise and fall of online trends may have become too fast to remain sustainable.

Often, Gen Z buy clothes that fit current trends, but they only end up wearing 10 to 20 per cent of their wardrobe. When we wear something new, it increases demand from retailers and speeds up fashion cycles as a result. Social media rewards novelty with likes and comments, which leaves fashion brands rushing to catch up.

Microtrends have become popular in the wake of the pandemic. These short-lived trends evolve on TikTok and become available in online stores as soon as they are dubbed a catchy ‘-core’ name. But, almost immediately, everybody’s interested in a brand new style instead.

Does The 20-year Rule Still Apply?

While the ’20-year’ fashion cycle persists in 2024, it’s now happening at a much faster rate. Today, consumers are nostalgic for something that happened just a few years ago. Styles that were popular during the pandemic are already being revived, while fashion trends from within the last decade are already considered ‘retro’.

“Gen Z are desperate to revive the past, in hopes of escaping their own present.“

It’s possible that Gen Z pay tribute to old trends and subcultures more than any other generation. They’re inspired by fashion both from their grandparents’ childhood and their own, always looking into the past instead of looking to the future. This could be due to the uncertainty of the future, ever-evolving technology and the impending dangers of climate change. Gen Z are desperate to revive the past, in hopes of escaping their own present.

Our addiction to being constantly stimulated, as evidenced by the popularity of TikTok, results in fashion changing nonstop to keep our attention. This is true for all of us, not just Gen Z, as we seek out constant dopamine hits from refreshing social media, changing our aesthetics with every scroll.

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Featured image courtesy of Victoria Krivchenkova on Unsplash. No changes were made to this image. Image license found here.

Writer and journalist. University graduate in English Literature. Book reader, word lover and Notion enthusiast.

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