Prime Minister Rishi Sunak speaking in the House of Lords about the Rwanda plan

Georgia Wells

As of late, the UK general election has placed the Rwanda deportation plan in limbo. Regardless, Rishi Sunak remains unwaveringly confident, while Keir Starmer promises to scrap the policy elected.

Recent opinion polls show Labour has taken the lead over the Tories by 20 percent. So, unless Sunak somehow garners more support at the eleventh hour, it seems, thankfully, no flights will be taking off to Rwanda. But what are the implications of this?

The fact so many are rejoicing over the possibility of the immigration bill not being passed is a sad testament to the current state of our government.

However, the worst thing about the Bill being scrapped is the waste of time and money poured into the plan. Nonetheless, if Labour wins and the Bill is axed, it will be a huge victory for the vulnerable and traumatised asylum seekers who have already been detained for deportation to Rwanda.

What Has Sunak Announced So Far?

After the Bill finally passed through the House of Lords back in April, Sunak triumphantly declared “nothing will stand in our way of getting the Rwanda flights off the ground”. These were famous last words, given that Sunak has now admitted that no flights will take place before the general election on the 4th July. This forces Conservative voters to blindly trust that they will see Sunak’s plan materialise if he is re-elected. But why call an election knowing that no flights would take place?

Sunak didn’t need to call an election this early. It wasn’t necessary until January 2025. By then, surely, the Rwanda plan would be well underway. This all begs the question: why call an election before any flights can take off? Why not wait, and prove to the public that the Rwanda policy can work and be effective at stopping the boats?

“He is depriving the public the opportunity to witness how much of an “Alice in Wonderland” policy failure this has all been”

The simple answer? Sunak called the election early because he knows the Rwanda plan won’t be effective. It’s likely that waiting until autumn to call the General Election would result in further diminished public trust, as the Rwanda flights would be halted in the face of more legal backlash and protest.

This has led many critics to argue that it was a tactical decision for Sunak to call the election early. By doing this, he is depriving the public the opportunity to witness how much of an “Alice in Wonderland” policy failure this has all been.

At What Cost?

Still, Sunak continues to claim that the Rwanda plan acts as a “deterrent”. Yet, there is no evidence to support this. In fact, it’s quite the opposite.

The number of dangerous channel crossings has reached record levels this year. So far, the Rwanda policy has only instilled further fear and uncertainty in the traumatised asylum seekers already in the UK.

The Home Office has even potentially detained thousands of asylum seekers for Rwanda deportations since the end of April this year. Charities such as Asylum Aid say many of those detained or facing deportations are survivors of human trafficking. The scheme has also already caused “deep and irreparable damage” to the mental health of these people.

Meanwhile, those seeking to cross the Channel remain undeterred. They say “it’s better to die trying”.

“The scheme only scratches the surface of a widespread, long-term humanitarian problem”

In terms of economic costs, the absurdity is striking. The Tory government has already paid Rwanda £290m to deliver the scheme. This is despite no one being sent to Rwanda yet. It’s even been calculated by the Lib Dems that the £290m – which has already been spent on the scheme – could have funded the equivalent of 7 million GP doctor appointments. It’s no wonder our public services are failing.

Furthermore, speaking to Channel Four, Yvette Cooper suggests that the plan would cost over half a billion pounds to deport a total of 1 per cent of asylum seekers to Rwanda. So, even if the Rwanda flights do eventually take off, the scheme only scratches the surface of a widespread, long-term humanitarian problem.

I think Lib Dem MP Alistair Carmichael said it best when he questioned: “How out of touch can this Conservative Government be as they throw even more money at a policy that is destined to fail?”

So What’s Actually Happening?

At the moment, it seems safe to say that the Rwanda deportations will not happen. However, regardless of who is elected, Britain will continue to face an ongoing immigration crisis.

The solution will not be found in the Rwanda scheme. Nor will it be found in tough, hostile immigration polices. As has been shown time and time again, the punitive policing of borders has only causes more tragedy.

If Labour is elected, I hope they seek real ‘change’. Not only a change to the backlogged asylum system, but also in governmental attitudes and approaches to immigration. Our previous security-dominant approach is clearly ineffective, with immense human and economic cost.

We need a more humane and sensible immigration and asylum system. Whilst there is a need to protect the UK border, no asylum seeker should be denied human rights. We need safe and legal routes that will reduce Channel tragedies, as well as a fast and fair asylum processing system. One which treats all refugees and asylum seekers with dignity and respect.

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Featured image courtesy of House of Lords via Flickr. No changes were made to this image. Image license found here.

I'm a final year Criminal Justice and Criminology student at the University of Leeds. After university I hope to pursue a career in journalism. I am passionate about tackling injustice, social and political policy, and human rights.

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